Ogilby, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS65 KPSR 251102
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
402 AM MST Wed Mar 25 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot conditions will continue to challenge daily
  temperatures records through the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.

- These hot conditions may be dangerous, especially for any
  strenuous outdoor activities without proper hydration and
  frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.

- Temperatures should finally begin to back away from record
  territory by the end of the weekend as the high shifts east and
  cloud cover and shower chances increase.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging remains the dominant feature over much of the western CONUS
with heights hovering around 588-590dm over the Desert Southwest. It
is basically status quo with the forecast for today, continued
hot and dry conditions, with the one exception being that
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to what was
observed to start the week. With H5 heights once again around all-
time records for this time of year, along with
southerly/southwesterly flow inducing some warm-air advection,
widespread triple digits will make their return for the lower
deserts. Locations that do not reach the century mark can expect
readings in the upper 90s.

By late today into Thursday, a tight area of low pressure,
currently sitting off the California Coast, will inevitably move
its way inland, helping to generate some breezy conditions for
parts of the forecast area this afternoon and again Thursday.
However, with the weak nature of this disturbance, the strongest
gusts are only expected to reach upwards of 15-25 mph, with the
higher end of that range favoring the highest ridge top areas.
Otherwise, the remainder of the week looks to be calm as the ridge
remains the dominant feature and even rebounds once again.
Temperatures Thursday look as if they may cool a degree or two, at
least for areas around the Colorado River Valley and westward,
thanks to the lower heights provided by the passing system.
Nonetheless, upper 90s to around the 100 degree mark will remain
the common temperatures range through the end of the workweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heading into the weekend, a potent cold front will dive south across
the Plains with a strong surface high building in behind it. This
will result in noticeable enhancement of our regional pressure
gradient, generating breezy to locally windy conditions for areas
primarily east of the Colorado River. The highest gusts, which
may exceed 35 mph, will be focused over the higher terrain areas
east of the Phoenix metro area, but gusts 20-30 mph look possible
(50-60%) for lower desert areas of SOuth-Central and Southwestern
Arizona. It appears likely (~80% chance) that some areas in the AZ
high terrain experience gusts that reach Wind Advisory criteria.
However, with the limited spatial and temporal scope of advisory
level winds, no products will be issued at this time. If future
guidance expands the areas of 40+ mph gusts, then it would not be
surprising to see an advisory issued in the coming days.
Temperature wise, the front half of the weekend will pick up where
the previous few days left off as readings in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees will be common once more.

The back half of the weekend may yield a very welcome change as
the high begins to shift further east, with the axis of this
feature becoming centered over the Front Range and the Central
Plains. As the high shifts, it will impart southerly flow over the
region which will tap into to sub-tropical moisture, setting up
an almost quasi- monsoonal pattern over the Desert Southwest.
Models continue to suggest PWATs increasing to 200-250% of normal
across the majority of Arizona by Sunday. This flux will, at the
very least, bring in considerable cloud cover over the region,
helping to decrease insolation and lowering our temperatures,
albeit just by a bit. Some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out in association with moisture at these levels,
especially out in eastern Arizona and along our higher terrain
areas of Gila County, but with temperatures remaining well-above
normal, it would take a decent amount more moisture to achieve
higher probabilities and greater coverage of any precipitation.
Another factor that will likely inhibit any widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be a lack of forcing. Synoptic lift will be
missing so any vertical development would have to rely solely on
orographic influence. As of now, PoPs for our eastern most areas
stand at 20-25%, with less than 10% chances for the lower deserts.
Any hope of rainfall for lower elevation areas will have to fall
any outflow boundaries moving off the high terrain, but with where
potential storms may initiate, and the expected storm motion,
that appears to be an unlikely outcome at this point.

Rainfall Monday cannot be ruled out just yet as elevated moisture
looks to remain over the region. However, it looks as if the
start of next week may suffer from a similar setup as Sunday with
decent moisture but not enough supporting lift. Even though there
are some ensemble members that indicate better instability on
Monday, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms is only
around 20% out where enhanced terrain features can induce
precipitation development. There are signs of an approaching East
Pacific trough approaching the West Coast toward the end of the
forecast period. If this were to speed up at all and interact with
lingering moisture, we could be talking about better rain chances
in the coming days for the beginning of April.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies will
persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit
the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts with light
and variable conditions likely, especially before the diurnal
switchover.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies will persist
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, current light and variable
winds will go southeasterly early this afternoon, shifting out of
the west during the evening hours. At KBLH, winds will generally
fluctuate between the south to southwest throughout the period.
Overall speeds will be aob 12 kts, with some occasional elevated
gusts during the afternoon hours at KBLH and evening hours at
KIPL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Record heat along with very dry conditions will continue through
at least the start of the weekend. MinRH values will run generally
around 5-10% over the next few afternoons before increasing
closer to 10-20% Saturday-Sunday. MaxRHs will follow a similar
uptrend with readings close to 20-40% the next few mornings before
rising through the weekend. Winds through the end of the workweek
should be generally light and follow diurnal trends, although
some marginal breeziness (gusts 15-25 mph) will be observed this
afternoon and once again Thursday. Stronger winds (gusts 25-35
mph) enter the picture late Friday into Saturday mainly, for
areas east of the Colorado River. Higher gusts upwards of 40+ mph
will be likely (~80% chance) for portions of the Arizona high
terrain, but should be confined to the highest ridgetops. With
very dry air in place, marginal breezes will lead to periods of
elevated fire weather conditions through Friday. Even with the
enhanced winds for Saturday, RHs should come up enough to limit
critical thresholds for being met, but continued elevated, to near
critical, conditions can be expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through this week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/25     99 in 2025     99 in 1896     99 in 2025
3/26    100 in 1988     99 in 1988     98 in 1988
3/27     98 in 1986    100 in 1986     99 in 1988
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...RW
CLIMATE...RW/18